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Russia has likely lost one-third of its ground combat forces in Ukraine and the forces who remain are depleted and have been unable to make any territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said early Sunday.
Russia “has now likely suffered losses of one-third of the ground combat force it committed in February,” the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense said in an update.
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“Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule,” the report continued. “Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition.”
The UK government also said these losses will “almost certainly” be worsened as tactical and support equipment continues to run out.
“These delays will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of critical enablers such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones,” the UK government said. “Russian bridging equipment has been in short supply throughout the conflict, slowing and restricting offensive maneuvers.”
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The report added: “Russian forces are increasingly constrained by … low morale and reduced combat effectiveness.”
The UK Defense Ministry predicted Russian forces would not return to the initial successes they saw unless these conditions substantially change.
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“Under the current conditions, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.”
Russia initially invaded Ukraine on Feb 24. and experts predicted Ukrainian troops would be forced to surrender within weeks.
Conversely, Ukrainian forces have fended off the aggressors and a wave of international support has helped the smaller country remain in the fight.